A significant shakeup at the chart’s summit awaits when the second College Football Playoff ranking round arrives. Ohio State will likely fall out of the top 20 after a loss to Oregon, while Georgia prepares to reclaim the No. 1 spot. The selection committee must also decide where to place Notre Dame after its loss to Miami and how to handle the messy group of three-loss teams in the SEC. These four questions define the chaos heading into Tuesday night.
A chaotic weekend has left the committee with no easy answers. The rankings released on Tuesday night will show a new leader at the top, but the path to the playoff remains unclear for several teams. According to USA TODAY, this second ranking round will resolve several major questions that emerged over the weekend. The uncertainty centers on five specific teams that could change the entire race for the four playoff spots.
Can Utah Leapfrog Georgia for No. 1?
Utah has a strong case, backed by an unbeaten record and a dominant win over Brigham Young. The Utes also blew out a solid Arkansas team by 33 points in September. Despite these wins, it is highly unlikely they will jump Georgia for the top spot. The committee values Georgia’s road wins against Alabama and Ole Miss far more than Utah’s conference victories. Since suffering defeat against the Tigers early this season, the Bulldogs have remained the most consistently dominant Power Four squad.
While the BYU win helps Utah’s résumé, the eye test favors the Bulldogs. Georgia has proven it can win on the road against tough opponents, a key factor for the committee. The Utes have had a great season, but the path to No. 1 is blocked by Georgia’s résumé. Per USA TODAY, the committee won’t place as much value on the BYU win as they will the Bulldogs’ road successes. This leaves Utah in a strong position but still behind the defending national champions.
How Far Does Ohio State Fall?
Ohio State faces a steep drop in the rankings after falling to 6-3 with a loss to Oregon. This marks the second straight loss for the Buckeyes, who are now barely hanging on to the edge of the playoff race. Ranked No. 12 last week, the team will likely stay in the Top 25 but could slide to around No. 20. This new spot mirrors their position in the US LBM Coaches Poll released after the game.
The Buckeyes will sit behind two other three-loss teams, Ole Miss and Oregon, in the new order. They should still remain above LSU and South Carolina, though their margin for error has vanished. The loss to Oregon hurts their standing significantly, and a second loss has burned through the team’s goodwill. USA TODAY reports that the Buckeyes barely hang on to the outer edges of the at-large playoff contention. Their chance to reach the Big Ten championship game is now slim.
Will Miami Stay Ahead of Notre Dame?
The committee previously honored Miami’s head-to-head win against Notre Dame from a year ago. This move bumped the Hurricanes into the tournament in last season’s final rankings. Now, the question is if Miami can stay ahead of the Irish after a road loss. There are two reasons the Hurricanes might remain in front. First, the loss came with a major caveat: Miami played without star receiver Malachi Toney for the first time this season.
Historical precedents indicate the committee evaluates losses differently if a team lacks an elite player. While this has usually applied to quarterbacks, Toney’s absence is a significant factor. Yahoo Sports notes the committee ultimately recognized Miami’s head-to-head victory from a year prior, elevating the Hurricanes above Notre Dame. If the committee follows this pattern, the lack of Toney could protect Miami’s ranking despite the defeat to the Irish.
What About the Three-Loss SEC Teams?
One major unknown concerns the committee’s method for ranking the numerous SEC teams carrying three losses. Will the rankings show that it is curtains for the Buckeyes, LSU, and Missouri? LSU has taken tough losses to Alabama and one-score losses to Kentucky and Ole Miss. Meanwhile, Oregon and South Carolina sit comfortably ahead of the Tigers despite their own flaws. Illinois and Oklahoma State defeated Oregon, while South Carolina lost to Mississippi State.
LSU should be ranked higher given the quality of their losses compared to other teams. Texas handed Missouri a disputed loss, causing the team to exit the Top 25 entirely. The Tigers lost to Ole Miss, Mississippi State, and Texas, all of which are strong teams. Yahoo Sports mentions that aside from the many other three-loss SEC squads, Ohio State is now a train wreck. The committee must decide if these losses are acceptable for playoff consideration.
The final rankings will reveal if the committee values strength of schedule over win-loss records. The chaos of the weekend has left fans waiting to see who gets the final spots. The five mysteries outlined above will determine the landscape for the rest of the season. Following its massive victory over former No. 1 Miami, the selection committee must determine Notre Dame’s placement and the extent of the Hurricanes’ decline. These decisions will shape the playoff picture for the next few weeks.
The new rankings drop tonight on ESPN.
