Dodgers Win Game 3 Because Roberts Trusted The Numbers Over Hype

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Manager Dave Roberts made the right call by dropping Shohei Ohtani to the fifth spot in the batting order for Game 3. This move paid off immediately as Enrique Hernández hit a two-run homer to break the scoreless tie. The Dodgers secured a 3-1 victory on Tuesday night and now sit one win away from clinching the series.

The Data Behind the Lineup Shuffle

Most fans wanted Ohtani to stay in the two-hole, but the numbers told a different story. Through the first two games, Ohtani went just 2-for-8 with two strikeouts. He managed only a single in each game despite hitting three hard balls. According to FanGraphs, Roberts moved him down to fifth place, following Betts, Freddie Freeman, Teoscar Hernández, and Will Smith. Since 2020, Ohtani had not previously begun a game with a batting order position below fourth.

The shift made sense because of how Ohtani struggled against sliders. Chris Sale, the opposing pitcher, relies heavily on that specific pitch. Roberts also swapped out switch-hitting Tommy Edman for Miguel Rojas at second base. He replaced lefty-swinging Max Muncy with righty-swinging Enrique Hernández at third base. These changes were not random; they were calculated moves to gain an edge against a tough lefty pitcher.

Why The Veteran Moves Worked

Some critics might argue that benching Muncy was risky since he hit 29 home runs this year. He actually homered in both of the first two games, bringing his franchise postseason record to 18 dingers. Yet, the Dodgers needed a different approach against Sale. Hernández, who had a lower average against lefties this season, delivered when it mattered most.

Yoshinobu Yamamoto provided seven strong innings to back up the offense. The team eked out the win and positioned themselves to clinch the series on Wednesday night. This victory proves that usage matters more than reputation. The boring, logical choices often win leagues while the flashy ones fail. Roberts ignored the hype and trusted the model.

The Dodgers now hold a 2-1 lead and could close out the Braves on Wednesday. The shift in the lineup worked exactly as planned to counter Sale’s strengths. If the team sticks with this approach, they have a clear path to victory. The numbers show that the old hands provided the intensity needed for the moment. A 3-1 scoreline is not a fluke; it is the result of smart management.


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